Abstract

Gene drives offer revolutionary potential for the management of problematic plant populations, such as invasive weeds and herbicide-resistant species, by rapidly spreading desired genetic alterations. Two recent studies have provided the first experimental demonstrations of engineered CRISPR gene drive systems in plants (CAIN and ClvR). However, the successful application of such systems in the field will critically depend on an accurate understanding of plant-specific life-history traits, especially seed dormancy, a ubiquitous yet frequently overlooked eco-evolutionary force. In this study, we develop the first comprehensive modeling framework for gene drives in plant populations that incorporates a persistent soil seedbank. We show how the presence of a seedbank can significantly slow gene drive spread but also reduce the genetic load required to achieve population elimination. Furthermore, we show that seedbanks substantially increase the required introduction frequency of threshold-dependent gene drives, which could prevent establishment in some cases, yet also provide an intrinsic biosafety mechanism for confining a highly efficient drive to a target population. Our study highlights the need to incorporate seedbank dynamics into gene drive strategies to ensure realistic predictions and successful field applications.